Salem, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

580
FXUS61 KGYX 201425
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1025 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The good news is that upper low pressure will continue to move
farther away from the area and loosen its grip on our weather.
It will be more dry than wet today, even if temperatures remain
below normal. The bad news is that close on its heels is the
next upper low pressure system. After passing south of our area
it looks like it will also cut off and slowly drift east through
the weekend. Overall temperatures through the weekend look to be
below normal to go along with above normal chances of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM Update...Going forecast is in good shapre for today and
have mainly performed a refresh of sky cover and T/Tds to
capture the latest round of observations.

Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...Center of upper low has moved little in
24 hours...now centered just off the southern tip of Nova
Scotia. A potent S/WV trof rotating around it is helping to drag
it farther out to sea today...but there is one more S/WV spoke
to drop thru the region before it is gone. Largely it looks like
it will be responsible for a lowering of cloud heights...but
showers will generally remain widely scattered to isolated. As
pressure gradient relaxes today...winds will be gradually
diminishing thru afternoon. Abundant cloud cover will keep temps
cooler than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low continues to pull away from the region and ridging
will try to nose into the area ahead of the next rain-maker.
Some partial clearing is possible...especially across western
ME. That may allow portions of the Kennebec River Valley to drop
into the 30s overnight. Wed will be mostly quiet between
systems. North to northeast flow will keep temps below
normal...especially as clouds increase from the southwest thru
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1130 PM Update... Little change in the latest NBM suite of
guidance. Cooler than average temperatures and unsettled weather
conditions will prevail.

Previously...
A blocked upper level pattern will leave northern New England within
a col point Wednesday with upper lows to the east and west and an
axis of high pressure along the East Coast. Surface high pressure to
the north will produce cool onshore winds Wednesday while much of
the area will remain precipitation free. The upper low to the west
will generate a surface low over the Mid Atlantic Wednesday night
with the latest round of NWP models bringing this low near the Gulf
of Maine Thursday into Friday. The surface low will exit into the
Canadian Maritimes Friday night while the upper low crosses overhead
Saturday. Ensembles then favor a warming and drying trend
Sunday into Monday.

Surface high pressure building in from the north will produce steady
northeast to east winds Wednesday. These winds and mostly cloudy
skies will make for a cool conditions as high remain mainly in the
50s. High pressure will remain centered north of the area Wednesday
night into Thursday as a surface low tracks near Cape Cod. The 12Z
model suite is in general agreement this system will track near
the Gulf of Maine Friday and into the Canadian Maritimes Friday
night. There remains a fair amount of spread in QPF that is
sensitive to how close the low will track into the Gulf of
Maine. Ensemble means of the ECMWF and CMC are around an inch
while the GEFS favors farther offshore track resulting in less
QPF. Have continued to stick to the NBM which brings PoPs 60 to
85 percent Thursday into Thursday night. Depending on how close
the low tracks there will also be breezy northeast winds making
for a cool and raw day with highs in the low 50s.

The surface low will slowly track east of the area Friday and into
the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. Friday will also be cool
with highs and the 50s and PoPs running 60 to 70 percent. As the
surface low pulls away Saturday the upper low will move
overhead leading to some diurnally driven clouds and showers.
Ensembles then favor a drying and warming trend Sunday into
Monday with highs on Monday approaching the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area
this morning are expected to give way to widespread MVFR CIGs as
the next S/WV trof rotates down thru New England today. Coverage
of showers will not be as widespread as yesterday. Winds will
also diminish thru the day. Conditions improve again slightly
Wed with expanding VFR conditions anticipated.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Wednesday with clouds lowering Wednesday
night and Thursday. Periods of rain and low cigs will likely
bring restriction Thursday into Friday with improving conditions
into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Marginal SCA conditions continue this
morning...though winds and seas will both be diminishing thru
the afternoon. Offshore winds will generally remain breezy thru
Wed but below SCA conditions.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Low pressure tracking near Cape Cod will
bring increasing east to northeast winds Thursday with Gales
possible Thursday into Friday morning. Winds drop below 25 kts
Friday while seas remain elevated into Saturday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-
     152.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Legro/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter/Tubbs
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro